Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 2491 · PHX → GEG
departs 9:45 AM MT · arrives 12:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 21%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into GEG at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.