Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2491 · PHX → BWI
departs 10:00 AM MT · arrives 5:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 18%
Fri 10/2 21%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.67 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.