Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 254 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 254 · MSP → MDW

took off 6:10 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:37 PM CT → 7:21 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 254 · MSP → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?