Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 2561 · MIA → AUS
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.16 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.