WN 2858 · MIA → BNA

departs 6:04 PM ET · arrives 7:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.27 in

BNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2858 · MIA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?