WN 3012 · AUS → MIA

took off 1:53 PM CT · landed 5:15 PM ET (scheduled 1:12 PM CT → 4:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3012 · AUS → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?