WN 3044 · MKE → DCA

departs 8:17 AM CT · arrives 11:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↑ 8am departures from MKE are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.38 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3044 · MKE → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?