Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3076
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 3076 · OAK → SAN
departs 1:45 PM PT · arrives 3:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.