Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3486 · SAN → BWI
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 5:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
47%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.