Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 3486 · SAN → BWI
departs 9:40 PM PT · arrives 5:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.