Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3624 · AUS → CVG
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 51%
Fri 10/2 40%
Sat 10/3 19%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.