Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3651 · SFO → PHX
departs 3:35 PM PT · arrives 5:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 41%
Fri 10/2 44%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.