Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 3794 · SMF → LGB
departs 6:15 PM PT · arrives 7:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 7%
Fri 10/2 5%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LGB that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.