WN 3884 · STL → RSW

took off 10:37 AM CT · landed 1:38 PM ET (scheduled 10:07 AM CT → 1:42 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RSW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into RSW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3884 · STL → RSW

Odds over time

How late did it get to RSW?