Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3884
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3884 · STL → AUS
departs 8:25 AM CT · arrives 10:25 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.