WN 3930 · TPA → DCA

departs 10:05 AM ET · arrives 12:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3930 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?