Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4001
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4001 · TPA → AUS
departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 85%
Fri 10/2 64%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
68%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
68%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 62% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
68%
Yes 68%
No 32%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.