Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4024
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4024 · MEM → DEN
departs 6:15 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 40%
Fri 10/2 44%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.