Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4024
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4024 · MEM → DEN
departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 6:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 44%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.