Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4038
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4038 · TPA → MSY
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 52%
Fri 10/2 60%
Sat 10/3 19%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.