Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4038
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4038 · TPA → MSY
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 5:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3 19%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±5 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.45 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.