WN 4062 · BWI → AUS

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 6:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,533 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4062 · BWI → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?