Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4106 · BOS → MDW
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 41%
Fri 10/2 39%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
+20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.