Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4106 · BOS → MDW
departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 9/30 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 28%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.