Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 411 · TPA → DCA
departs 10:00 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
TPA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.