Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4125
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4125 · SBA → DEN
departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 9:30 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 10%
Fri 10/2 6%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SBA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.