Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4147
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4147 · SAN → BNA
departs 12:40 PM PT · arrives 6:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 38%
Fri 10/2 41%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.