Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4147
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4147 · SAN → BNA
departs 12:30 PM PT · arrives 6:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 41%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 57% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.