Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4193
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4193 · SAT → BNA
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 6:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.