Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4193
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4193 · SAT → BNA
departs 5:25 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 38%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 2.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 2.09 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.