Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4206 · BNA → TYS
departs 10:15 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
BNA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TYS (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.