Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4206 · BNA → TYS
departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 12:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +34 pts in 24h
+34 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
BNA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TYS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.