WN 4229 · HOU → DCA

departs 8:31 AM CT · arrives 12:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HOU that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.13 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4229 · HOU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?