Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4265
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4265 · SJC → SAN
departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 51%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.