Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4265
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4265 · SJC → SAN
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 10:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 50%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SJC that day
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.