Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4294
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4294 · RSW → BWI
departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 28%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.39 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.