Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4294
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4294 · RSW → BWI
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.23 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.