Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4295
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4295 · CLE → BWI
departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 24%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from CLE are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.07 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.