Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4295
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4295 · CLE → BWI
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 27%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
CLE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.