Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4315 · PHX → HOU
departs 6:35 PM MT · arrives 11:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 41%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 38%
Tue 10/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at HOU that day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.