Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4315 · PHX → HOU
departs 7:20 PM MT · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 38%
Tue 10/6 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.