Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4411 · HOU → RDU
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 6:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 39%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±1 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.