Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4411 · HOU → RDU
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 38%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
HOU is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.