Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4451 · HOU → SAT
departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 10:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 54%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
HOU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.