Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4451 · HOU → SAT
departs 10:35 PM CT · arrives 11:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HOU is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 1.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.