Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4461 · DEN → FAT
departs 12:35 PM MT · arrives 1:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 27%
Fri 10/2 28%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.