Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4461 · DEN → FAT
departs 2:40 PM MT · arrives 4:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±7 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.