Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4464 · SAN → SMF
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 41%
Fri 10/2 46%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.