Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4464 · SAN → SMF
departs 3:45 PM PT · arrives 5:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 43%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 46%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.