Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4511 · SAN → TPA
departs 9:00 AM PT · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 34%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.